Burden and Forecast of Ovarian Cancer in China and Globally from 1990 to 2023

doi:10.12280/gjfckx.20260061

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of ovarian cancer (OC) in China and globally from 1990 to 2023, and to predict its changing trends from 2024 to 2040. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) for OC in China and globally from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from the 2023 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends of OC, and to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Decomposition analysis was employed to quantify the influencing factors changes in the OC disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the changing trends of the OC disease burden in China and globally from 2024 to 2040. Results: From 1990 to 2023, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR for OC in China showed a declining trend, with AAPCs of -0.77%, -0.35%, -1.14%, and -1.41%, respectively (all P<0.05). Globally, the ASMR for OC showed a declining trend (AAPC=-0.19%, P<0.05), while the ASIR and ASPR showed an increasing trend, with AAPCs of 0.09% and 0.33%, respectively (both P<0.05); the ASDR remained generally stable (AAPC=-0.02%, P>0.05). However, from 2020 to 2023, the disease burden of OC both in China and globally showed an increasing trend. Analysis of disease burden across different age groups showed that in 2023, the peak crude prevalence rate of OC in China occurred in the 50-54 years age group (50.12 per 100 000), and the peak crude incidence rate occurred in the 65-69 years age group (12.83 per 100 000). Globally, the peak crude prevalence rate was in the 60-64 years age group (84.02 per 100 000), and the peak crude incidence rate was in the 85-89 years age group (30.95 per 100 000). Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging was the primary reason for the increasing OC burden in China, while population growth was the main factor for the increasing global OC burden. From 2024 to 2040, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR for OC in China and globally are projected to continue rising. Conclusions: The overall burden of OC in China and globally showed a declining trend from 1990 to 2023, but has shown an increasing trend since 2020 and is projected to continue rising. OC screening strategies in China need to focus on women over 50 years old, strengthen screening and public prevention efforts and investment, and draw on international advanced diagnosis and treatment experiences to effectively reduce the OC disease burden.

Key words: Ovarian neoplasms, Carcinoma, Global burden of disease, Age groups, Population dynamics, Epidemiology, Forecasting

FENG Shu-jie, CHEN Jiao, LI Yang-xi. Burden and Forecast of Ovarian Cancer in China and Globally from 1990 to 2023[J]. Journal of International Obstetrics and Gynecology, 2026, 53(5): 579-586.

Figures/Tables 7

References 31

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指标	中国			全球
指标	1990年（1/10万，95%UI）	2023年（1/10万，95%UI）	变化率（%）	1990年（1/10万，95%UI）	2023年（1/10万，95%UI）	变化率（%）
ASIR	4.73（3.58~6.07）	3.66（3.05~4.38）	-22.60	7.14（6.49~7.92）	7.33（6.30~8.79）	2.70
ASPR	20.08（14.51~26.01）	17.77（14.46~21.77）	-11.52	28.02（24.67~32.24）	31.09（25.68~37.92）	11.00
ASMR	2.98（2.22~3.90）	2.04（1.67~2.48）	-31.58	4.94（4.49~5.42）	4.63（4.00~5.36）	-6.38
ASDR	99.83（74.23~129.35）	62.35（51.81~75.23）	-37.55	142.33（128.14~158.45）	140.60（118.22~166.98）	-19.30

指标	中国			全球
指标	1990年（1/10万，95%UI）	2023年（1/10万，95%UI）	变化率（%）	1990年（1/10万，95%UI）	2023年（1/10万，95%UI）	变化率（%）
ASIR	4.73（3.58~6.07）	3.66（3.05~4.38）	-22.60	7.14（6.49~7.92）	7.33（6.30~8.79）	2.70
ASPR	20.08（14.51~26.01）	17.77（14.46~21.77）	-11.52	28.02（24.67~32.24）	31.09（25.68~37.92）	11.00
ASMR	2.98（2.22~3.90）	2.04（1.67~2.48）	-31.58	4.94（4.49~5.42）	4.63（4.00~5.36）	-6.38
ASDR	99.83（74.23~129.35）	62.35（51.81~75.23）	-37.55	142.33（128.14~158.45）	140.60（118.22~166.98）	-19.30

地区	ASIR		ASPR		ASMR		ASDR
地区	AAPC	95%CI	AAPC	95%CI	AAPC	95%CI	AAPC	95%CI
中国	-0.77*	-1.07~-0.46	-0.35*	-0.64~-0.06	-1.14*	-1.62~-0.65	-1.41*	-1.94~-0.88
全球	0.09*	0.01~0.17	0.33*	0.26~0.41	-0.19*	-0.31~-0.06	-0.02	-0.12~-0.07

地区	ASIR		ASPR		ASMR		ASDR
地区	AAPC	95%CI	AAPC	95%CI	AAPC	95%CI	AAPC	95%CI
中国	-0.77*	-1.07~-0.46	-0.35*	-0.64~-0.06	-1.14*	-1.62~-0.65	-1.41*	-1.94~-0.88
全球	0.09*	0.01~0.17	0.33*	0.26~0.41	-0.19*	-0.31~-0.06	-0.02	-0.12~-0.07

地区	指标	总差异	人口学因素所致变化（占总变化百分比）
地区	指标	总差异	人口老龄化	人口增长	流行病学变化
中国	发病人数（例）	14 878.44	16 429.88（110.43%）	6 274.05（42.17%）	-7 825.50（-52.60%）
	患病人数（例）	62 976.67	45 714.99（72.59%）	30 613.21（48.61%）	-13 351.52（-21.20%）
	死亡人数（例）	11 741.94	13 102.20（111.58%）	7 127.50（60.70%）	-8 487.76（-72.29%）
	DALY数（人年）	172 361.22	331 945.54（192.59%）	138 526.09（80.37%）	-298 110.41（-172.96%）
全球	发病人数（例）	180 212.33	75 583.28（41.94%）	98 908.24（54.88%）	5 720.80（3.17%）
	患病人数（例）	754 407.39	250 762.23（33.24%）	403 057.65（53.43%）	100 587.51（13.33%）
	死亡人数（例）	187 714.79	89 569.49（47.72%）	127 993.63（68.19%）	-29 848.33（-15.90%）
	DALY数（人年）	3 313 332.21	1 456 364.18（43.95%）	1 929 216.12（58.23%）	-72 248.09（-2.18%）