国际妇产科学杂志

国际妇产科学杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (2): 228-233.doi: 10.12280/gjfckx.20241018

• 普通妇科疾病及相关研究：论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

1990—2021年中国及全球多囊卵巢综合征疾病负担及预测分析

闫辉波, 张琳()   

  1. 200062 上海市普陀区妇婴保健院检验科（闫辉波），妇产科（张琳）
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-11 出版日期:2025-04-15 发布日期:2025-04-22
  • 通讯作者: 张琳 E-mail:Linda_pfy@126.com

Analysis of the Disease Burden and Projections of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021

YAN Hui-bo, ZHANG Lin()   

  1. Department of Laboratory (YAN Hui-bo), Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology (ZHANG Lin), Shanghai Putuo District Maternity and Infant Health Hospital, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2024-11-11 Published:2025-04-15 Online:2025-04-22
  • Contact: ZHANG Lin E-mail:Linda_pfy@126.com

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摘要：

目的： 分析并预测中国多囊卵巢综合征（polycystic ovary syndrome，PCOS）疾病负担情况，为中国PCOS的防治提供科学依据。方法： 使用2021年全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease 2021，GBD 2021）数据，对比分析中国及全球1990—2021年PCOS的发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年（disability adjusted life year，DALY）率。并采用自回归差分移动平均指数（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）模型预测2022—2041年PCOS及其导致的不孕的疾病负担。结果： 与1990年相比，2021年全球PCOS标化发病率增加27.93%，标化患病率增加28.05%，标化DALY率增加27.48%；中国PCOS的标化发病率增加85.36%，标化患病率增加85.39%，标化DALY率增加87.10%，均呈逐年递增趋势，且中国的增长速度高于全球水平（均P<0.000 1）。此外，ARIMA模型显示，2041年全球及中国PCOS的标化发病率、标化患病率、标化DALY率较2022年将继续增加，且中国的增长速度高于全球水平（均P<0.000 1）；2041年全球及中国PCOS导致的不孕的标化发病率、标化伤残损失寿命年（YLDs）率较2022年亦将继续增加，且中国的增长速度高于全球水平（均P<0.000 1）。结论： 1990—2021年全球及中国的PCOS疾病负担呈增长趋势，且预计仍会继续增加。中国PCOS疾病负担增长速度高于全球，应采取相关措施予以重视PCOS的防治。

关键词: 多囊卵巢综合征, 全球疾病负担, 中国, 发病率, 患病率, 伤残调整生命年

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze and predict the disease burden of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in China, providing evidence-based guidance for its prevention and treatment. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) data, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the incidence rate, prevalence rate, and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rate of PCOS in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to project the disease burden of PCOS and PCOS-associated infertility from 2022 to 2041. Results: Compared with 1990, the global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of PCOS in 2021 increased by 27.93%, 28.05%, and 27.48%, respectively. In China, these rates surged by 85.36%, 85.39%, and 87.10%, exhibiting a persistent upward trend with significantly higher growth rates than the global average (all P<0.000 1). Furthermore, ARIMA model projections further indicate that by 2041, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of PCOS in both China and globally will continue to rise from 2022 to 2041, with China′s growth rate remaining markedly above global levels (all P<0.000 1). Similarly, the age-standardized incidence and YLDs rate of infertility attributable to PCOS are projected to increase through 2041, with China again demonstrating faster growth than the global trend (all P<0.000 1). Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of PCOS exhibited a sustained upward trend both globally and in China, with projections indicating further increases. Notably, China′s PCOS disease burden has grown at a significantly faster rate than the global average. It is imperative for China to prioritize evidence-based strategies to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts targeting PCOS.

Key words: Polycystic ovary syndrome, Global burden of disease, China, Incidence, Prevalence, Disability adjusted life year