Analysis of the Disease Burden and Projections of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021

doi:10.12280/gjfckx.20241018

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze and predict the disease burden of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in China, providing evidence-based guidance for its prevention and treatment. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) data, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the incidence rate, prevalence rate, and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rate of PCOS in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, and employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to project the disease burden of PCOS and PCOS-associated infertility from 2022 to 2041. Results: Compared with 1990, the global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of PCOS in 2021 increased by 27.93%, 28.05%, and 27.48%, respectively. In China, these rates surged by 85.36%, 85.39%, and 87.10%, exhibiting a persistent upward trend with significantly higher growth rates than the global average (all P<0.000 1). Furthermore, ARIMA model projections further indicate that by 2041, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of PCOS in both China and globally will continue to rise from 2022 to 2041, with China′s growth rate remaining markedly above global levels (all P<0.000 1). Similarly, the age-standardized incidence and YLDs rate of infertility attributable to PCOS are projected to increase through 2041, with China again demonstrating faster growth than the global trend (all P<0.000 1). Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of PCOS exhibited a sustained upward trend both globally and in China, with projections indicating further increases. Notably, China′s PCOS disease burden has grown at a significantly faster rate than the global average. It is imperative for China to prioritize evidence-based strategies to strengthen prevention and treatment efforts targeting PCOS.

Key words: Polycystic ovary syndrome, Global burden of disease, China, Incidence, Prevalence, Disability adjusted life year

YAN Hui-bo, ZHANG Lin. Analysis of the Disease Burden and Projections of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021[J]. Journal of International Obstetrics and Gynecology, 2025, 52(2): 228-233.

Figures/Tables 6

References 18

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范围	指标		1990年	2021年	变化率（%）	AAPC（95%UI）（%）	P
全球	发病	人数（例）	1 476 225	2 301 506	55.90	1.45（1.38~1.51）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	55.75	58.53	4.50	0.15（0.07~0.23）	0.000 2
		标化率（1/10万）	49.45	63.26	27.93	0.81（0.77~0.85）	<0.000 1
	患病	人数（例）	36 651 157	69 473 252	89.55	2.09（2.06~2.13）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	1 384.17	1 766.89	27.65	0.79（0.74~0.84）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	1 372.77	1 757.83	28.05	0.82（0.78~0.86）	<0.000 1
	DALY	人数（例）	323 799	607 757	87.70	2.06（2.02~2.10）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	12.23	15.46	26.41	0.76（0.71~0.81）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	12.08	15.40	27.48	0.80（0.76~0.83）	<0.000 1
中国	发病	数量（例）	208 206	258 930	24.36	0.69（0.48~0.90）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	36.55	37.28	2.00	0.04（-0.18~0.26)	0.709 1
		标化率（1/10万）	31.62	58.61	85.36	2.05（1.96~2.15）	<0.000 1
	患病	人数（例）	5 335 330	10 077 520	88.88	2.11（1.98~2.24）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	936.65	1 450.75	54.89	1.45（1.33~1.58）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	832.95	1 544.17	85.39	2.03（1.83~2.23）	<0.000 1
	DALY	人数（例）	45 870	86 443	88.45	2.10（1.97~2.23）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	8.05	12.44	54.53	1.44（1.32~1.56）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	7.13	13.34	87.10	2.06（1.88~2.24）	<0.000 1

范围	指标		1990年	2021年	变化率（%）	AAPC（95%UI）（%）	P
全球	发病	人数（例）	1 476 225	2 301 506	55.90	1.45（1.38~1.51）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	55.75	58.53	4.50	0.15（0.07~0.23）	0.000 2
		标化率（1/10万）	49.45	63.26	27.93	0.81（0.77~0.85）	<0.000 1
	患病	人数（例）	36 651 157	69 473 252	89.55	2.09（2.06~2.13）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	1 384.17	1 766.89	27.65	0.79（0.74~0.84）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	1 372.77	1 757.83	28.05	0.82（0.78~0.86）	<0.000 1
	DALY	人数（例）	323 799	607 757	87.70	2.06（2.02~2.10）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	12.23	15.46	26.41	0.76（0.71~0.81）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	12.08	15.40	27.48	0.80（0.76~0.83）	<0.000 1
中国	发病	数量（例）	208 206	258 930	24.36	0.69（0.48~0.90）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	36.55	37.28	2.00	0.04（-0.18~0.26)	0.709 1
		标化率（1/10万）	31.62	58.61	85.36	2.05（1.96~2.15）	<0.000 1
	患病	人数（例）	5 335 330	10 077 520	88.88	2.11（1.98~2.24）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	936.65	1 450.75	54.89	1.45（1.33~1.58）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	832.95	1 544.17	85.39	2.03（1.83~2.23）	<0.000 1
	DALY	人数（例）	45 870	86 443	88.45	2.10（1.97~2.23）	<0.000 1
		率（1/10万）	8.05	12.44	54.53	1.44（1.32~1.56）	<0.000 1
		标化率（1/10万）	7.13	13.34	87.10	2.06（1.88~2.24）	<0.000 1